According to a recent report from the USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS), global wheat production is projected to reach a record high in the 2023-24 season. The latest forecasts indicate a total production of 800.2 million metric tons (MMT), which is an increase of 10.4 MMT from the previous estimate in May. This significant rise in global production is expected to support higher consumption, increased trade, and larger ending stocks, as stated by the ERS.
In the United States, wheat production for the upcoming marketing year is forecasted to reach 1.66 billion bushels, which is 6 million bushels higher than the May estimate and slightly less than 1% above the previous year. However, the season-average farm price for wheat in the U.S. has been revised down by $0.30 per bushel to $7.70. The ERS attributes this revision to the anticipation of larger supplies from competitors.
At present, the European Union is projected to remain the top wheat producer, with an expected production of 140.5 MMT. This represents an increase of 1.5 MMT, driven by favorable growing conditions in countries such as France, Hungary, and Italy. While China and India rank as the second and third leading wheat producers, the ERS notes that the majority of their production is not available for the global market.
Russia is expected to see a significant increase in wheat production, with a forecasted rise of 3.5 MMT to reach 85 MMT. Likewise, Ukraine is projected to experience a production increase of 1 MMT from the May estimate, reaching 17.5 MMT. It's important to note that a substantial portion of the region occupied by Russia is not included in the USDA's estimate.
The record-breaking global wheat production is indicative of the industry's strength and the positive outlook for the upcoming season. The increased production levels are likely to have a significant impact on consumption, trade, and ending stocks worldwide. As the market continues to evolve, it will be crucial for stakeholders to monitor these developments closely.
The projected rise in global wheat production offers a promising outlook for farmers and consumers alike, highlighting the potential for greater availability and stability in the wheat market.
Source : michiganagconnection