WASDE: Total Red Meat & Poultry Production Projected Higher Than 2017

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total red meat and poultry production for 2018 is projected higher than 2017 on increased livestock and poultry production. Cattle placements during second half 2017 and early 2018 are forecast higher; these cattle will be slaughtered during 2018, supporting higher beef production. Carcass weights are expected to be higher. Pork production is forecast higher on expected increased farrowings and continued gains in sow productivity. Higher broiler and egg production reflects expanded production in response to moderate feed prices and relatively strong 2017 prices. Turkey production is forecast higher as demand strengthens.

 

Total red meat and poultry production for 2017 is reduced from the previous month on lower beef, pork and broiler production. Beef and pork production is reduced on lighter expected cattle and hog carcass weights. Broiler production is lowered on lower forecast second-quarter production. Turkey production is raised on higher first-quarter slaughter data. The 2017 egg production forecast is reduced on lower first-quarter table egg production and lower expected hatching production for the remainder of the year. For 2018, larger beef supplies and lower prices are expected to support stronger U.S. beef exports. Beef imports are forecast higher as supplies of domestic processing-grade beef remain relatively tight and supplies of beef increase in key exporting countries. Pork exports are forecast to increase as expanding supplies and competitive prices support demand for U.S. pork. U.S. pork imports are forecast to decline as domestic supplies are expected to pressure prices. Broiler and turkey exports are forecast higher on expected continued gains in foreign demand.

 

The 2017 beef and pork export forecasts are raised as demand is expected to remain strong. The beef import forecast is raised on recent trade data for the first quarter, but pork imports are reduced. Changes to the 2017 poultry and egg trade forecast reflect first-quarter trade data. Cattle and hog prices for 2018 are forecast to decline relative to 2017 as both cattle and hog supplies are expected to increase. Turkey and egg prices are forecast to increase in 2018 on increased demand. The

2018 broiler price is forecast lower, as production increases and supplies of competing meats are higher. The 2017 cattle and hog price forecasts are raised on recent price strength and expectations that demand will remain relatively firm through the year. The broiler price forecast is increased as second quarter prices are raised due to recent price strength. Turkey and egg prices are forecast lower for the remainder of the year as relatively large supplies pressure prices.

 

Milk production for 2018 is forecast higher on stronger milk prices and moderate feed prices. Commercial exports on fat and skim-solids bases are forecast higher on stronger global demand. Fat basis imports are forecast modestly higher in 2018 while skim-solids basis imports are forecast lower relative to 2017. Cheese and non-fat dry milk prices are forecast higher than 2017, but butter and whey prices are forecast lower. The increase in the Class III price reflects higher forecast cheese prices which more than offset lower whey prices. The Class IV price is higher as the higher non-fat dry milk price more than offset lower butter prices. The all milk price is forecast at $17.55 to $18.55 per cwt for 2018. 

 

Forecast milk production in 2017 is lowered from the previous month on slower growth in milk per cow. Fat basis imports are lowered from the previous month while skim-solids basis imports are increased. Commercial exports are forecast higher for both fat and skim-solids bases. Non-fat dry milk price forecasts are raised from last month while butter is lower. Cheese and whey prices are unchanged. The Class III price is unchanged while the Class IV is higher than the previous month. The milk price is forecast at $17.35 to $17.85 per cwt.