Consumer sentiment is changing
This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The articles share information to watch during the week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.
By Aleah Harle, Farms.com Risk Management Intern
1. The USDA Cold Storage Report for March is set to be released on March 25. The report from the previous month showed a 6% decline in total red meat stocks in freezers compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, frozen pork supplies increased by 3% from the prior month, but were down 11% from the previous year. Declining U.S. livestock inventories could lead to a further drop in meat in cold storage.
2. The quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, providing data on the U.S. pig crop across 16 major states, is set to be released on March 27. The previous report showed that the total inventory of all hogs and pigs on December 1, 2024, was 75.8 million head, up one percent from the previous year, but slightly down from the prior quarter.
USDA has been overestimating U.S. hog production in 2025 as U.S. hog slaughter after 10 weeks is running 4-5% less, not 1-2% more, due to PRRS disease.
3. Keep an eye on dairy! Despite the devastating impact of bird flu on dairy herds, milk prices are unlikely to see significant increases in the near term due to federal price controls. However, with declining production, new federal pricing rules, and rising costs for farmers, market pressures could begin to build.
In the coming weeks, expect steady retail milk prices, but potential price hikes for dairy products like cheese and butter, along with increasing financial strain on farmers.
4. The Advanced Trade Balance in Goods Report is scheduled for release on March 27. The most recent report showed the U.S. international trade deficit increased to $153.3B, up $31.2B from December, with exports of goods rising by $3.3B to $172.2B and imports at $325.4B, up $34.6B.
Market analysts expect exports to decline by 1.0%, with imports falling by 8.0%. January’s surge in imports was largely due to efforts to avoid potential tariffs, but February is likely to see a correction in imports, though tariffs remain a threat, meaning imports may remain above normal levels.
5. For Canadians - On March 25, The Conference Board of Canada is set to release the Consumer Confidence Index Report. In the previous report, the index saw a sharp decline of 7.0 points in February, dropping to 98.3, marking the largest decrease since August 2021.
Average 12-month inflation expectations surged from 5.2% to 6% in February, likely driven by persistent inflation, rising prices of key household staples like eggs, and the expected impact of tariffs. Given the decline in February, March is expected to see a modest rebound, potentially bringing the index back above the 100 thresholds. However, ongoing concerns about inflation and trade policies are likely to continue shaping consumer sentiment in Canada.
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