After a controversial report on July 20 that was widely criticized for containing unrealistic crop forecasts for Western Canada that were obviously far too high, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) has released an updated report with lower forecasts.
Whereas in July the government analysts projected Canadian canola production at 19.885 million tonnes, this week’s report is pegging the crop at 15 million tonnes, down 19.9% from the 2020 crop of 18.72 million.
This week’s forecast is based on a yield decline of about 26% from last year, to 29.62 bu/acre. The government left its estimated canola harvest area at the same as its July report, not adjusting it for what’s expected to be a significant increase in abandoned acreage.
The durum production outlook also came down and more into line with trade expectations, to 3.83 million tonnes. This compares with the July forecast of 5.835. Last year’s crop was 6.571 million tonnes.
Barley is now placed at 7.45 million tonnes, down from 10,89 in the July report and down from the previous year’s crop of 10.74 million.
AAFC is now acknowledging the poor oat crop, pegging it at 2.68 million tonnes, vs 3.79 million in July and 4.58 million a year ago.
Flax production is now placed at just 490,000 tonnes, vs 585,000 a month ago and 578,000 a year ago.
Pulse-crop forecasts were revised to more realistic levels as well, with peas now projected at 2.75 million tonnes, down from 4 million in the July report and 4.59 million a year ago.
Lentil output was revised to 1.885 million tonnes, down from the July forecast of 2.75 million and the 2020 production of 2.868.
The corn and soybean crop estimates were only changed marginally from July, as the weather in the large Ontario and Quebec growing areas has been conducive to healthy crops. Corn production for Canada is still forecast up slightly from a year ago and soybeans production is still expected to decline slightly from a year ago.
These AAFC forecasts are not based on actual surveys. Statistics Canada, an unrelated department of the federal government, conducts surveys and runs vegetation models to project yields and production forecasts/estimates. The next Statistics Canada report is due on Monday, Aug. 30.
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