Cooler Than Average June

South Dakota's weather this summer could be a bit of a climate roller coaster according to outlooks issued by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center May 19, 2016.

The outlook shows the early summer months to be wetter and possibly cooler in the southwest part of the state.

"These conditions usually fit together in the warm season," explained Dennis Todey, State Climatologist/Associate Professor. "If conditions are wetter, South Dakota is rarely warmer than average for any length of time in the summer."

Laura Edwards, SDSU Extension Climate Field Specialist added that the current, fairly wet soil conditions in areas of South Dakota and the Plains are likely to help maintain temperatures cooler into the early summer. "In South Dakota, cooler and wetter conditions are more likely to impact the early summer with warmer and drier than average conditions later," she said.

In the Black Hills and the northeast corner of South Dakota, these wetter conditions are good news. Both areas are reflected on the U.S. Drought Monitor map as being abnormally dry (D0) in the most recent map.

"For producers in the northeast, the conditions should line up well as the current dryness will allow for quicker progress on planting into the slightly dry soils," Edwards said. "The rain after planting should help early crop progress."

Although rain in the Black Hills will have little agricultural impact, Edwards said the additional rainfall will help limit potential wildland fire issues for the short-term.

Today's climate outlooks from NOAA is fairly consistent in showing warmer than average conditions to cover the region by late summer, as well as some drier than average conditions in parts of the state.

"The current El Niño continues to weaken and fade and a La Niña is likely to take hold," she said.

This transition, Edwards explained, is expected to be fairly quick, but the atmospheric patterns do not change overnight. "They take many weeks to transition between the different phases. How late in the growing season this occurs will determine what impacts we experience and where those impacts occur," she said.

Depending on transition timing, the impacts could vary.

A late transition (mid-late August) would have limited impact except for soybean areas, unless conditions turn severely dry and warm quickly.

However, Edwards said a late transition looks to be the most likely case at this point.

"The additional heat during the growing season may not be a major issue and possibly help with some crops that were planted late," Edwards said. "Some dry conditions seem likely to have some impact towards the end of the growing season."

If dry conditions set up late in the growing season, Edwards said this could be a benefit to corn and soybean growers.

"It could mean grain could dry down in the field before harvest, reducing their costs of mechanical grain drying in the fall," she said. "While not reducing yield too much."