Global uncertainty and tight supply push fertilizer costs higher, straining farmers worldwide
In 2025, the global fertilizer market is facing serious pressure due to rising costs and uncertain demand. Ongoing geopolitical tensions have worsened the supply of key inputs, leading to reduced purchasing power for farmers. According to RaboResearch’s affordability index, fertilizers like nitrogen and phosphate are becoming less accessible, moving from a period of affordability to a more expensive cycle.
“RaboResearch’s fertilizer affordability index indicates a transition between cycles, moving from a period of relative affordability to one where fertilizers are less affordable and the index turns negative,” said Bruno Fonseca, Senior Analyst – Farm Inputs with RaboResearch. “We expect this unfavorable scenario for the fertilizer market to persist throughout the year.
India remains a strong player in the global fertilizer trade but is also experiencing seasonal dips in demand and stock shortages. China’s restrictions on fertilizer exports, especially for phosphates and nitrogen products, have added to the global shortage. However, exports are expected to resume in the second half of 2025 after domestic applications are completed.
Meanwhile, crop markets are also affected. Corn prices could rise due to tight global stocks, while soybeans face pressure from record production in Brazil and weak US exports. Trade tensions, especially tariff threats, continue to harm global trade and may keep agricultural commodity prices low. US farmers are particularly impacted, facing higher fertilizer costs and reduced export competitiveness.
Despite these challenges, commodity prices for corn, soybeans, and wheat remain within a stable range, offering hope and trading opportunities amid rising volatility.
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