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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE)
The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as USDA’s focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. and world agriculture. The Board coordinates, reviews, and approves the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, houses OCE's Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, and coordinates USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum. |
Report Highlights:
The USDA has lowered its outlooks for old and new crop U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks. The balance sheet adjustments for both were primarily tied to expectations for strong export demand after widespread crop damage in South America. The 2015/16 marketing year for domestic corn and soybeans runs through August.
For corn, 2015/16 U.S. ending stocks are pegged at 1.708 billion bushels, compared to 1.803 billion in May, with a bigger import guess, from 55 million bushels to 60 million, canceled out by a larger export projection, from 1.725 billion bushels to 1.825 billion. The average 2015/16 farm price is estimated at $3.60 to $3.80 per bushel, compared to $3.50 to $3.70 a month ago. 2016/17 U.S. corn ending stocks are now expected to be 2.008 billion bushels, compared to 2.153 billion last month. Aside from the change to beginning stocks, or old crop ending stocks, there were no changes to the supply side of the balance sheet. Exports were raised by 50 million bushels to 1.950 billion. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel, compared to $3.05 to $3.65 last month.
For soybeans, 2015/16 U.S. soybean ending stocks are seen at 370 million bushels, compared to 400 million a month ago, with the crush upped 10 million bushels to 1.890 billion and exports increased 20 million bushels to 1.760 billion. The average 2015/16 farm price is estimated at $9.05 per bushel, compared to $8.85 in May. 2016/17 U.S. soybean ending stocks are pegged at 260 million bushels, compared to 305 million a month ago. Except for the lower beginning stocks figure, there were no changes to the supply side of the ledger. Exports were raised 15 million bushels to 1.9 billion. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $8.75 to $10.25 per bushel, compared to $8.35 to $9.85 last a month ago.
For wheat, 2015/16 U.S. wheat ending stocks were 980 million bushels, up 2 million on the month, with a decrease in imports, by 3 million bushels to 117 million, and a decrease in exports, by 5 million bushels to 775 million. The average 2015/16 farm price is estimated at $4.90, steady with last month. The 2015/16 marketing year for wheat ended May 31st. 2016/17 U.S. wheat ending stocks are now projected at 1.050 billion bushels, compared to 1.029 billion in May. Along with the higher beginning stocks figure, the USDA raised production 79 million bushels to 2.077 billion, while lowering imports 5 million bushels to 125 million. Feed and residual use was raised 30 million bushels to 200 million and exports wee increased 25 million bushels to 900 million. The average 2016/17 farm price is estimated at $3.60 to $4.40 per bushel, compared to $3.70 to $4.50 in May.
Source: USDA