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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE)
The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as USDA’s focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. and world agriculture. The Board coordinates, reviews, and approves the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, houses OCE's Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, and coordinates USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum. |
The USDA has tightened its 2014/15 ending stocks projections for soybeans and wheat, while raising the estimate for corn.
For the current marketing year, wheat ending stocks are seen at 684 million bushels, down slightly from March with lower import and export projections and a higher feed and residual use guess. Corn ending stocks are pegged at 1.827 billion bushels, up 50 million on the month with USDA reducing that feed and residual use estimate. Soybean ending stocks came out at 370 million bushels, 15 million less than last month with USDA raising import, seed use, and residual use projections.
Breakdown of selected grain and oilseed supply and demand tables:
2014/15 U.S. wheat ending stocks came out at 684 million bushels, compared to 691 million in March and 590 million in the 2013/14 marketing year. USDA lowered exports 15 million bushels to 145 million, putting total supply at 2.761 billion bushels. Seed use was raised 2 million bushels to 77 million and feed & residual use was increased 10 million bushels to 160 million, taking domestic use to 1.197 billion bushels, and exports were reduced 20 million bushels to 880 million, for total use of 2.077 billion bushels. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $6 to $6.10 per bushel, compared to $5.90 to $6.10 a month ago and $6.87 a year ago.
2014/15 U.S. corn ending stocks were pegged at 1.827 billion bushels, compared to 1.777 billion last month and 1.232 billion last marketing year. There were no changes to the supply side of the ledger. The feed and residual use estimate was 50 million bushels lower at 5.250 billion, taking domestic use to 11.845 billion bushels and total use to 13.645 billion. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $3.55 to $3.85 per bushel, compared to $3.50 to $3.90 in March and $4.46 in 2013/14.
2014/15 U.S. soybean ending stocks are seen at 370 million bushels, compared to 385 million a month ago and 92 million a year ago. Imports were increased 5 million bushels to 30 million, putting total supply at 4.091 billion bushels. Seed use was hiked 6 million bushels to 98 million and residual use was raised 14 million bushels to 38 million, for total use of 3.721 billion bushels. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $9.60 to $10.60 per bushel, compared to $9.45 to $10.95 last month and $13.00 last year.
2014/15 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks came out at 1.380 billion pounds, compared to 1.505 billion in March and 1.165 billion for 2013/14. Production is projected at 20.565 billion pounds, down 15 million, with imports at 200 million pounds, up 40 million, for a total supply of 21.930 billion pounds. Domestic disappearance is seen at 18.650 billion pounds, an increase of 300 million, with biodiesel unchanged at 4.7 billion pounds and food, seed, & industrial use at 13.950 billion pounds. Exports were reduced 150 million pounds to 1.9 billion, taking total use to 20.550 billion pounds. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $.30 to $.33 per pound, compared to $.30 to $.40 a month ago and $.3823 a year ago.
2014/15 U.S. soybean meal ending stocks were pegged at 300,000 short tons, compared to 300,000 last month and 250,000 last year. There were no changes to the balance sheet. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $355 to $385 per short ton, compared to $350 to $390 in March and $489.94 in 2013/14.
2014/15 world wheat ending stocks were reported at 197.21 million tons, compared to 197.71 million a month ago. Global production is now projected at 726.45 million tons, compared to the prior guess of 724.76 million, with increased expectations for the European Union, North Africa, Pakistan, the dozen smaller former Soviet states, and Russia. Domestic feed use is seen at 139.38 million tons, compared to 140.08 million in March, and exports are expected to be 162.03 million tons, compared to 160.57 million last month.
2014/15 world corn ending stocks are projected at 188.46 million tons, compared to 185.28 million in March. The world crop is seen at 991.92 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 989.66 million, with larger production in Argentina, Egypt, Mexico, and Southeast Asia cancelling out slight declines in South Africa and the dozen smaller former Soviet states. Domestic feed use is expected to be 596.07 million tons, compared to 597.16 million last month, and exports are seen at 117.69 million tons, compared to 116.84 million a month ago.
2014/15 world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 89.55 million tons, compared to 89.53 million last month. Global production is seen at 315.46 million tons, compared to the prior projection of 315.06 million tons, with an increase of 1 million tons to 57 million for Argentina. Brazil and Paraguay were left unchanged at 94.5 million tons and 8.5 million tons, respectively. Domestic crush use is pegged at 253.99 million tons, compared to 254.19 million a month ago, and exports are seen at 117.52 million tons, compared to 117.42 million in March. Export projections for Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay were steady and China’s import guess was lowered slightly to 74.35 million tons.