By Ms. Bonnie A. Coblentz
Harvest will begin as soon as early August for soybeans, Mississippi’s largest row crop that is overall in good shape heading into the last weeks of its growing season.
Prices, however, are poor, with supply and demand working to push prices even lower.
Soybeans benefitted from a slightly earlier start than usual, and disease and insect pressures have been fairly typical for the Mississippi summer. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated 17% of the crop was in excellent condition, 48% in good condition and 29% fair. The remaining 5% was poor and 1% looked very poor as of July 28.
Trent Irby, an associate director with the Mississippi State University Extension Service and the former state soybean specialist, said depending on the area, the crop is mostly in good shape.
“We are fortunate to have a lot of acres with irrigation capabilities, so those acres, up to this point, look to have a lot of potential,” Irby said. “Other areas of the state where irrigation is limited have experienced varying weather conditions, so it is still too early to tell on some of those.”
This year, Mississippi growers planted about 2.25 million acres of soybean. State producers typically grow at least half of their soybean acres on irrigated land. A wet spring in some areas delayed planting slightly and in other areas, delayed weed management.
Since then, a hot and dry July decreased yield potential in places, especially those areas that didn’t benefit from scattered rains that occurred during the month.
Irby said there have been no unexpected challenges to the crop across the state this year, but that could change quickly.
“We are entering a season of the year where dry conditions along with insect or disease issues can quickly change our overall yield potential,” he said.
In Mississippi, soybean harvest typically is complete by late fall to early winter, depending on weather conditions during harvest.
Will Maples, Extension agricultural economist, said while the growing season has been good for soybeans, markets have not.
“Since May 1, the November 2024 soybean futures contract has declined by nearly $2 per bushel to settle around $10.22 per bushel as of July 31,” Maples said. “A perfect combination of supply and demand is driving the market lower.”
Affecting supply is good weather nationally to date, with 68% of the U.S. crop rated good or excellent.
“Because of this, there is an optimistic outlook for yield and increased production,” he said.
In late July, the soybean market rallied slightly based on projections of dry weather and extreme heat developing in Midwest growing areas, Maples said.
“Current projections still show hotter weather in the region, but the outlook for extreme heat has been reduced, and more rain is likely,” Maples said. “In response to this change in weather outlook, the November soybean futures contract lost 58 cents from July 29 to 31, leading to new contract lows.”
While supplies are expected to be high, demand is mixed. All soybeans are crushed for meal and oil, and Maples said U.S. demand for soybean crush looks great and is expected to increase over 2023 demand, but that is not all of the equation.
“U.S. soybean exports booked for the upcoming marketing year are currently abysmal,” he said. “Soybean bookings for the new year are at a five-year low, and China has been slow to enter the market.”
Maples said it is tough to find anything that might lead to a price rally before harvest.
“Producers with storage need to begin exploring all their options and developing a post-harvest marketing plan,” he said.
Source : msstate.edu