U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2016/17 are unchanged this month, leaving ending stocks at 420 million bushels. Soybean exports are projected at 2,050 million bushels, up 114 million from last year. Although soybean export commitments through January are significantly higher than a year ago, competition from expected record South American exports will limit U.S. shipments to well below last year’s record levels this summer.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2016/17 is projected at $9.10 to $9.90 per bushel, unchanged at the midpoint from last month. Soybean oil prices are
forecast at 34 to 37 cents per pound, and soybean meal prices are projected at $310 to $340 per short ton, both unchanged at the midpoint from last month.
The 2016/17 global oilseeds supply and demand estimates include lower production and ending stocks compared to last month. Oilseed production is projected down 0.6
million tons to 554.2 million, with lower soybean production only partly offset by higher sunflowerseed, rapeseed, and cottonseed. Global soybean production is down 1.2 million tons to 336.6 million mainly on a 1.5-million-ton reduction for Argentina where heavy rain impacted the expected harvested area. Partially offsetting is a 0.3-millionton increase for Ukraine on higher yields. Global soybean crush is raised 0.4 million tons to 290.7 million, largely driven by the most recent crush data for Argentina. Global sunflowerseed production is raised 0.5 million tons to 44.8 million on increases for Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and the EU.
Global oilseed trade is projected up 0.7 million tons to 161.0 million tons. Increased exports of soybeans from Ukraine, rapeseed from Canada, and sunflowerseed from Argentina account for most of the change. Global oilseed stocks are projected lower, mostly reflecting reduced soybean stocks for Argentina and reduced rapeseed stocks
for Canada.
Source : USDA WASDE