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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE)
The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as USDA’s focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. and world agriculture. The Board coordinates, reviews, and approves the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, houses OCE's Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, and coordinates USDA's Agricultural Outlook Forum. |
The USDA is projecting large current supplies and big new crop supplies of corn, soybeans, and wheat.
For the current marketing year, the USDA raised corn and wheat ending stocks, while lowering soybeans. Still, the domestic soybean supply should be a lot larger than the 2013/14 total of 92 million bushels. 2014/15 U.S. corn stocks are seen at 1.851 billion bushels, soybeans are pegged at 350 million bushels and wheat is projected at 709 million bushels.
For next marketing year, corn, soybeans, and wheat were all above the average pre-report estimates. 2015/16 corn ending stocks are estimated at 1.746 billion bushels, with soybeans at 500 million bushels and wheat at 793 million bushels.
The 2015/16 marketing year starts June 1st for wheat, September 1st for corn and soybeans, and October 1st for soybean products.
The next set of supply and demand projections is out June 10th.
Breakdowns of selected supply and demand tables:
2014/15 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 709 million bushels, compared to 684 million in April and 590 million in 2013/14. USDA raised imports 5 million bushels to 150 million, taking total supply to 2.766 billion bushels. Exports were lowered by 20 million bushels to 860 million, putting total use at 2.057 billion bushels. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $6.00 per bushel, compared to $6 to $6.10 a month ago and $6.87 a year ago.
2015/16 U.S. wheat ending stocks are pegged at 793 million bushels. Production is projected at 2.087 billion bushels, with imports at 140 million, for total supply of 2.937 billion bushels. Wheat for food use is expected to be 967 million bushels, with seed use at 72 million and feed & residual use at 180 million bushels, for domestic use of 1.219 billion. Exports are seen at 925 million bushels, for total use of 2.144 billion. The average 2015/16 farm price is estimated at $4.50 to $5.50 per bushel.
2014/15 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 1.851 billion bushels, compared to 1.827 billion a month ago and 1.232 billion a year ago. Food, seed & industrial use was lowered 48 million bushels to 6.547 billion, putting domestic use at 11.797 billion bushels. Exports were increased 25 million bushels to 1.825 billion, for total use of 13.622 billion bushels. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $3.55 to $3.75 per bushel, compared to $3.55 to $3.85 last month and $4.46 last marketing year.
2015/16 U.S. corn ending stocks are seen at 1.746 billion bushels. Production is expected to be 13.630 billion bushels, with imports of 25 million, for total supply of 15.506 billion bushels. Feed and residual use is pegged at 5.3 billion bushels, with food, seed & industrial use at 6.560 billion, including ethanol use of 5.2 billion bushels, for domestic use of 11.860 billion. With exports projected at 1.9 billion bushels, total use is forecast at 13.760 billion bushels. The average 2015/16 farm price is estimated at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel.
2014/15 U.S. soybean ending stocks are expected to be 350 million bushels, compared to 370 million in April and 92 million in 2013/14. The USDA raised crush use 10 million bushels to 1.805 billion and also raised exports 10 million bushels to 1.8 billion, for total use of 3.741 billion bushels. The average 2014/15 farm price is estimated at $10.05 per bushel, compared to $9.60 to $10.60 a month ago and $13 a year ago.
2015/16 U.S. soybean ending stocks are pegged at 500 million bushels. Production is projected at 3.850 billion bushels, with imports at 30 million, for total supply of 4.230 billion bushels. Crush use is seen at 1.825 billion bushels, with exports at 1.775 billion, seed use at 92 million bushels and residual at 38 million, for total use of 3.729 billion bushels. The average 2015/16 farm price is estimated at $8.25 to $9.75 per bushel.
2014/15 world wheat ending stocks are projected at 200.97 million tons, compared to 197.21 million in the previous report. Total production was left unchanged at 726.45 million tons. Domestic feed use is estimated at 141.37 million tons, compared to 139.38 million a month ago, and exports are pegged at 163.70 million tons, compared to 162.03 million last month.
2015/16 world wheat ending stocks are seen at 203.32 million tons. Production is expected to be 718.93 million tons, with domestic feed use at 716.59 million and exports at 156.95 million tons.
2014/15 world corn ending stocks are estimated at 192.50 million tons, compared to 188.46 million in April. Production is now seen at 996.12 million tons, compared to 991.92 million, with increased expectations for Argentina, Brazil, and China, against a lower estimate for the European Union. Domestic feed use is pegged at 597.22 million tons, compared to 596.07 million last month, and exports are seen at 121.03 million tons, compared to 117.69 million a month ago.
2015/16 world corn ending stocks are expected to be 191.94 million tons. The global crop is projected at 989.83 million tons, with domestic feed use at 610.32 million and exports at 120.90 million tons.
2014/15 world soybean ending stocks are pegged at 85.54 million tons, compared to 89.53 million last month. Production is expected to be 317.25 million tons, compared to 315.46 million in a month ago, with a bigger estimate for Argentina. Domestic crush use is estimated at 254.48 million tons, compared to 253.99 million last month, and exports are pegged at 117.50 million tons, compared to 117.52 million in April. Imports by China were lowered by a half million tons to 73.5 million.
2015/16 world soybean ending stocks are projected at 96.22 million tons. The world crop is seen at 317.30 million tons, with domestic crush use at 266.22 million and exports at 121.98 million tons.