COTTON: This month’s 2016/17 U.S. cotton forecasts show higher production and exports relative to last month. Production is raised 271,000 bales to 17.2 million based on the March 9 Cotton Ginnings report. The final estimates for this season’s U.S. area, yield, and production will be published in the May 2017 Crop Production report. Domestic mill use is unchanged from last month, but exports are raised 0.5 million bales to 13.2 million based on recent very strong sales and shipments. U.S. exports are projected to capture nearly 37 percent of world trade, a 7-year high. Ending stocks are lowered 300,000 bales to 4.5 million. The projected range for the marketing year average price received by producers of 67.0 to 70.0 cents per pound is reduced 1 cent on the upper end, as the reported average price for January fell below previous expectations.
The forecast 2016/17 global production is raised slightly this month due to the revision in the United States, while world consumption is virtually unchanged. Consumption is raised for Indonesia and Vietnam and reduced for Turkey and other countries. World beginning stocks are raised marginally due to higher estimated 2015/16 production in Australia. Forecast world trade is raised slightly, with imports and exports revised for several countries based on activity to date. World ending stocks are now projected at 90.5 million bales, nearly 600,000 bales above last month.